What are the chances that the Dolphins go 0-16? Not very high. It has only happened once in NFL history. The Dolphins went 1-15 in 2007 with a far worse team than the current one. I assume that, by the time they go 0-8, the coach will be fired and the team will receive a temporary "bounce" from a new regime. Is it worth tanking the season to get a specific player in the draft?
Winning is a habit as much as anything else. One looks at the Patriots and assumes they have a great chance to win, no matter whom they're playing. They know how to win. The Packers make winning look effortless. The Dolphins need to get into that winning habit now. It starts with the next game.
Andrew Luck? Not sure if he will turn pro next year. Not sure if he wants to play for the Dolphins (remember Eli Manning turned down warm San Diego for cold New York). Not sure if he will be a success in the pros. Not sure if other QBs in the 2012 draft might not turn out to be better. Looking good in college and on paper doesn't always translate into professional success. There are many examples of "can't miss" players who flopped in the pros. Even more examples of "can't succeed" players who became all-time greats.
Football is a team game in the truest sense of the word. Players must do their individual jobs well for any team to even think of success. A cohesive unit is required. Andrew Luck, in the most optimistic sense, can solve a great many problems but cannot instill the winning habit all by himself. He will need help, and lots of it. Tanking a season does nothing to enhance the winning habit.
That said, the Dolphins need to take a QB in the first round. But it doesn't have to be Luck.