Well, here we are again. In a few short days, we will be hosting the Patriots in Miami. I'm gonna tackle this game by trying to figure out the formula we need to beat the Pats. As per the usual, I will be looking at strictly stats from that game and stats from the games the Patriots have lost to figure out the answers.
For a recap, here is the score and quarter breakdown of the previous game.
Still with me? Ok, so just from this, we can deduce that we had trouble on defense. That is going to be a constant. If anything we have learned is that there is a reason NE is ranked #1 on offense. What we need to do is challenge them enough to keep the points under 20. Why 20 you ask? Well, the Patriots defense allowed only 18.6 points per game. It is a given we will have to step up if we even want a dream of a chance at beating the Pats so add a few points call it 21 points or more we would have to make to fulfill the dream of beating them. Stepping up is not only for the offense but the defense as well. We are averaging a staggering 24.8 points allowed per game. My call in this regard is if the Pats go over 24 points, we will not win. We do not have the offensive power to get into a shootout with Tom Brady. I know, I know. I hate the guy too but what can you do. He is a hell of a QB.
So our 'equation' for winning looks like this so far: If MIA O puts up >21pts and MIA D allows <20pts MIA Wins. Seems simple and obvious but how likely is that to happen? Very unlikely. So let us break it apart a little differently.
Half the teams have been able to hold the Pats to under 24 points (6 out of 12). However, the two games they lost one was a shootout with the Panthers (33-30) and a devastating airstrike from the Chiefs (42-27). Both teams had to put up massive points against the Pats to beat them. Something Miami has failed to do time and time again. We have only broken 30pts twice. Once was a win versus the Jets (32-28) and the other was last Sunday (12/03/2017 for those from the future) against the Broncos (35-9). We do have one stat going for us, we are 2-0 in games where we put up more than 30pts. And that my fellow Dolphin fans I think is the key decider against the Patriots this Monday. If we put up more than 30 points, we will win. The question now remains, can we?
Sadly my guess is no. I'll save you my prediction but, though I do believe we will do better this time versus them, I still think that old Tom Brady will win this shootout in potentia. As we say back home, Hasta Mañana!